Busting the Myth of "Overcapacity": The Global Value of China's Green Industry

　　当全球聚焦应对气候变化、加速能源转型之际，一种脱离全球动态需求、片面指责中国绿色产业“产能过剩”的论调却在国际舆论中兴起。这场讨论常常忽略了一个核心问题：评判一场正在发生的全球产业革命，究竟应该沿用过去的静态尺度，还是立足未来的全球动态需求？

　　Against the backdrop of global climate change and the accelerating energy transition, a narrative detached from global demand has emerged in international discourse, accusing China's green industry of "overcapacity". This myth overlooks a core question: when evaluating an ongoing global industrial revolution, should we use the outdated static standards or base our judgment on the global dynamic demand of the future?

　　“产能过剩” 标签的固化，源于部分国际分析的静态视角。不少判断将短期市场波动简单等同于长期结构失衡，却选择性忽视了全球能源转型所创造的持续需求。国际能源署（IEA）发表的报告中指出，中国光伏产能扩张是2023年全球可再生能源装机增长近50% 的关键驱动力。这一数据生动表明，中国的产能扩张并非孤立事件，而是与全球绿色转型进程深度绑定、相互促进的动态结果。

　　The persistent label of "overcapacity" stems from the static perspective adopted by some international analyses. Many judgments simplistically equate short-term market fluctuations with long-term structural imbalances, while selectively ignoring the sustained demand generated by the global energy transition. A report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights that China's expansion of photovoltaic capacity was a key driver of the nearly 50% growth in global renewable energy installed capacity additions in 2023. This data vividly illustrates that China's green capacity expansion is not an isolated phenomenon, but a dynamic outcome that is deeply linked to and actively reinforcing the global green transition.

　　在全球化背景下，市场的选择往往比标签更具说服力。据中国汽车工业协会数据，2025年中国新能源汽车出口达261.5万辆，产销连续11年位居全球第一。这种由完整产业链优势和持续创新能力共同支撑的核心竞争力，契合全球应对气候变化、追求绿色低碳发展的共同诉求。同时，据IEA测算，到2030年，全球光伏新增装机需求将达到2022年的约4倍，而全球新能源汽车需求量将达到2022年的4倍多。这表明当前绿色产能难以匹配未来的长期需求，“产能过剩”的判断，并未得到全球市场的验证。

　　In the context of globalization, market choices are often more persuasive than arbitrary labels. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China exported 2.615 million new energy vehicles in 2025, with its production and sales of new energy vehicles ranked first globally for 11 consecutive years. This core competitiveness is built on a complete industrial chain and sustained innovation, aligning with the common global aspiration to address climate change and pursue green, low-carbon development. Meanwhile, the IEA estimates that by 2030, the global demand for newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be approximately four times that of 2022, and the demand for new energy vehicles will also surge to more than four times the 2022 level. These figures indicate that current green production capacity is unable to meet the long-term demand of the future. The myth of "overcapacity" has not been verified by the global market.

　　归根结底，围绕产能的讨论，不应停留在“多与少”的表层判断，而需要关注其是否为全球经济创造了新的价值。中国的绿色产能，既是自身产业升级的必然，也是全球可持续发展的刚需。在这场关乎未来的产业转型中，静态的 “过剩” 论调终将被动态的市场实践所修正，中国绿色产业的全球价值也将被更客观地认知和认可。

　　Ultimately, discussions about production capacity should move beyond the superficial debate of "too much or too little" and focus on whether it creates new value for the global economy. China's green production capacity is both a natural outcome of its industrial upgrading and a critical necessity for global sustainable development. In this decisive industrial transformation shaping our future, the static fallacy of "overcapacity" will eventually be recitified by dynamic market practices, and the global value of China's green industry will gain broader, more objective recognition.